modTrend Tool.

Have you ever wondered about the forecasting process?  Generally rely on computer generated forecast models, especially in the medium to longer range forecast periods (generally after 2 days).  But oftentimes those computer models show a lot of variability.  One computer model run for a specific day and spot could show high pressure, but the next run for that same day and spot it could show low pressure.  How does one make sense out this?  How do you decide which model run to choose?  Sometimes you cannot choose. Sometimes you have to rely on trends and ideas.   It is generally a given that forecast uncertainty increases as one moves out in time.

I have include a section on the links page for a tool called modTrend.  You can look to this page to see how forecast models are trending, an average/mean solution and ideas model uncertainty.  The page has a link to a YouTube Video, describing how to use it.  I've included a couple quick examples (see below), but a more in depth instructions are seen in the video.

If you have any questions, just send me a message in the "contact me" section of the blog (upper left).